Accurate perdiction of postsurgical function and esthetics of the nose and upper lip requires an understanding of the relationship between maxillary surgical movement and soft tissue change. Thirty-two patients underwent Le Fort I osteotomies, some with concomitant mandibular procedures. Preoperative, postoperative, and 1-year postsurgical data deri ved from cephalometric and nasolabial cast analysis were compared to assess skeletodental changes, soft tissue changes, and stability. A mulitple stepwise regression (including age, gender, alar cinch suture, V-Y closure, and contouring of the anterior nasal spine as variables) indicated that accurate prediction equations could be formulated, particularly if the patients were grouped by vector-specific maxillary movements. In general, the base of the nose widened in all patients regardless of the vecotr of surgical maxillary movement. An associated shortening of the nose was found. The nasolabial angle decreased or remained constant in most patients. The upper lip widened and lengthened at the philtral columns. Narrow noses widened more than did broad noses and alar cinch suturing widened the alar base even more. Results indicated that soft tissue incision and methods used in closure than by the surgically induced hard tissue change.